NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market transitioned into its fifth year Monday following four years of consecutive gains, with the S&P 500 having increased roughly 119% from its bear-market closing low on October 12, 2022, according to Truist analysis. The index closed that day at 3,577.03, marking its lowest finish since November 2020, and ended last Friday at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% increase for 2026. Additionally, it gained 1.2% over the most recent week.
This current rally is the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record, and notably, it is the seventh to persist for at least four years. Its 119% growth lags behind the 184% average gain seen across the bull markets studied, with the 2009-to-2020 cycle rising 401%, and the 1987-to-2000 surge reaching 582%. These earlier periods continue to stand out as some of the most robust long-term gains in the comparison.
Historically, the performance during the fifth year has mostly been positive, although individual cycles have varied. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six extended beyond their four-year mark. When considering those that reached a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median of 15%. The historical data also indicates an average maximum decline of about 14% during fifth years. It’s important to note that these figures describe past market cycles and do not predict the current trajectory.
Corporate Earnings Bolster Market Progress
Earnings reports from companies continue to be a key factor supporting the ongoing market advance. According to FactSet, third-quarter S&P 500 earnings had increased by 29.6% compared to the same period last year as of October 9, marking the third straight quarter with earnings growth exceeding 25%. The growth forecast at the end of September was 29.2%. Among 19 index companies that had reported, 84% exceeded analyst estimates, with their combined earnings surpassing expectations by 4.9%.
Analysts project continued strong profit growth through the end of 2026, with fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings expected to rise by 27.6% year-over-year, and full-year earnings growth estimated at 32.4%. Notably, about 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates are attributed to semiconductor and hardware firms. Barclays research further reveals that these companies account for approximately 75% of all revisions made so far in 2027 earnings estimates, emphasizing the significant role technology and related sectors play in the current earnings outlook.
Rising Interest Rates Mark Fifth Year of Market Gains
The upward movement in the market coincides with rising interest rates and elevated U.S. government bond yields. On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Federal officials indicated that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained high. The September projections showed a median economic growth forecast of 2.3% for 2026, with the unemployment rate expected at 4.1%. The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Meanwhile, long-term Treasury yields continue to stay elevated as the stock market enters its fifth year of gains, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.24% on October 9 and the 30-year yield at 5.60%. Despite these higher borrowing costs, the S&P 500 rose by 0.6% that day and closed at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%. With earnings growth remaining strong and borrowing costs high, U.S. equities are nearing five years of growth at historic levels.
}] }**HINTS for future prompts: Remember to strictly follow the rules about HTML tags, proper nouns, facts, and the structure. Use varied sentence constructions and avoid mirroring the original sentence patterns. Keep the facts and links unchanged.**